The Cotswold property market remains in good health with prices continuing to rise.

There is a shortage of properties available for sale in the market – we are seeing a 50% decline in the number of properties advertised for sale this September compared to last September. However, we must be careful to understand this in context. Properties are being sold faster, meaning the time a property spends on the market is less and therefore gives the illusion of less property selling.

In fact, if you look at the volume of sales in the Cotswold market, they are pretty close to the long term trend of 128 properties selling per month. Over the last two decades the number of sales per month has decreased by 6.5%. In my opinion this is driven by the increase in stamp duty over this time; based on the average sale price of £440,000, £12,000 is now paid, in comparison to £1,550 (or £2,635 inflation adjusted) in 2001.

I strongly believe now is a great time for first time buyers to get on the housing ladder. Interest rates are at an alltime low and with the Government’s mortgage guarantee scheme, a first time buyer only needs to save a 5% deposit. Five year fixed rate mortgages at this loan to value can be found from 3% and if purchasing a property below £500,000 there is no Stamp duty to pay up to £300,000.

Overall, the economy continues to grow and at the current rate will be larger than pre-pandemic by the end of this year. The long run interest rate is rising, therefore it is likely that mortgages will begin to get dearer over the next six months to a year – maybe another reason to consider a purchase now rather than later?

Moving into 2022 I predict house prices will continue to rise in the Cotswolds by another 5% over the course of the year

Tom Hayman-Joyce

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