When discussing the property market, I often return to two fundamental drivers: the availability of money and confidence. Whilst confidence remains somewhat elusive, there is little doubt that the money is still there.
Recent economic analysis suggests UK households are saving around 10% of their disposable income, approximately double the long-term average. In simple terms, a substantial amount of purchasing power is sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment to be deployed. The challenge for the property market is not a lack of money, but a lack of conviction.
Against this backdrop, the Cotswold market continues to tell a slightly different story from the national headlines.
One often overlooked point is that property values in the Cotswolds rose exceptionally strongly during the early years of this decade. As buyers prioritised space, lifestyle and flexible working arrangements, many parts of the Cotswolds significantly outperformed the wider UK market. Demand surged and values responded accordingly.
What we have seen over the past 18 months is not a dramatic correction, but a period of realignment. Values have softened from their peak as more properties have come to market, bringing the Cotswolds back towards longer-term relationships with national house price trends.
Buyers today have considerably more choice than they have enjoyed for many years. In the North Cotswolds, the number of properties available for sale is 34.7% above the ten-year average. This increased supply has inevitably placed some downward pressure on values and created a more balanced marketplace.
However, a balanced market should not be confused with a weak one. Transactions continue to take place, mortgage availability remains strong and realistic sellers are still achieving successful sales. Buyers, meanwhile, have opportunities that simply did not exist during the frenzied conditions of the post-pandemic market.
One particularly noticeable trend is the growing divide between turnkey homes and renovation projects. Well-presented properties requiring little work continue to attract strong interest, whilst homes needing substantial improvement face a more selective audience. Rising building costs and ongoing labour shortages mean many buyers are increasingly willing to pay a premium for convenience.
Looking ahead, confidence remains the key variable. Economic uncertainty continues to influence decision-making, but the underlying fundamentals remain encouraging.
The extraordinary market conditions of the early 2020s are behind us. Today’s market is more balanced and offers greater choice. In many respects, this should be viewed as a healthy development for both buyers and sellers alike.
Tom Hayman-Joyce MRICS – Hayman-Joyce, Cotswolds 01608 651188 haymanjoyce.co.uk