Cotswold Property Bulletin: House prices are not about to crash

Tom Hayman-Joyce confirms:

“I have read that house prices are going to fall, and they are unaffordable. When I consider the overall picture, unless something significant changes, I see prices remaining stable. Allow me to explain why.
The crux of most of the headlines is that over the next 18 months, about 1.8 million mortgage renewals will come off their fixed interest rates of about 2% and move to rates at an average of about 6% now. Putting this into perspective there are 28 million households nationally, so this accounts for just circa 6.5% of the market.

Firstly, earnings are up 7.2% on average, which will ease the uplift.
Add to this, many commentators may not have considered the excess money above normal that was saved through the Covid period – about £180 billion, calculated from Bank of England data – as additional resilience.

Another indicator is the percentage of take-home pay spent on financing. This currently is 33%, only 1% higher than the long-term average.

More detail can be found in our latest Cotswold Property Bulletin.